Nassaji Mazandaran 2–0 Shahin Bushehr

Nassaji Mazandaran

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shahin Bushehr

9/20/2019

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 4Vatani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nassaji Mazandaran49%

×Draw27%

Shahin Bushehr24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nassaji MazandaranExpected goals in this matchShahin Bushehr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.93

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.44

Shahin Bushehr

0.93

Nassaji Mazandaran creates 55% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

0.87

creates per match

0.80

1.05

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.87

Shahin Bushehr

0.80

allows per match

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.05

Shahin Bushehr

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nassaji Mazandaran ↓

Shahin Bushehr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nassaji Mazandaran or draw

76%

Nassaji Mazandaran or Shahin Bushehr

73%

Draw or Shahin Bushehr

51%

Winning margin

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+

24%

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals

76%

Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals

42%

Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals

18%

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

61%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

24%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)

67%

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nassaji Mazandaran at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.05 · 105 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.87 + Shahin Bushehr defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.80 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more

49%

level

27%

Shahin Bushehr scores more

24%

Nassaji Mazandaran at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nassaji Mazandaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff