Shahin Bushehr 2–2 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Shahin Bushehr

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Naft Masjed Soleyman

6/28/2020

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 22Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahin Bushehr35%

×Draw29%

Naft Masjed Soleyman37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahin BushehrExpected goals in this matchNaft Masjed Soleyman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.13

Shahin Bushehr

1.09

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

0.93

creates per match

0.45

1.80

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr

0.93

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.45

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr

1.80

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw

63%

Shahin Bushehr or Naft Masjed Soleyman

71%

Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman

65%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

14%

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

66%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

30%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

10%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

68%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

31%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

49%

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.93 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more

35%

level

29%

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

37%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff