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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Shahin Bushehr — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
10/21/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 7Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman48%
×Draw27%
Shahin Bushehr25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.43
Shahin Bushehr
0.96

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 49% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.85
Shahin Bushehr
0.80

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.13
Shahin Bushehr
2.00

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
75%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Shahin Bushehr
73%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
52%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
23%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
76%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
42%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
17%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
62%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
25%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
65%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.85 + Shahin Bushehr defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.80 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
48%
level
27%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
25%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Shahin Bushehr

Naft Masjed Soleyman beat Shahin Bushehr 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 21, 2019.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.