Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shahin Bushehr vs Khooneh Be Khooneh — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
1 – 0
Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
3/3/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Shahid Beheshti Stadium (Bushehr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shahin Bushehr44%
×Draw33%
Khooneh Be Khooneh23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.05
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.66

Shahin Bushehr creates 59% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 16 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.85
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.44

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.88
Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.25

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Khooneh Be Khooneh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
77%
Shahin Bushehr or Khooneh Be Khooneh
67%
Draw or Khooneh Be Khooneh
56%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
18%
Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
65%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
28%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
9%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
48%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
14%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
66%
Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 0.44 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
44%
level
33%
Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
23%

Shahin Bushehr at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahin Bushehr 1–0 Khooneh Be Khooneh

Shahin Bushehr beat Khooneh Be Khooneh 1-0 in Azadegan League on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Beheshti Stadium (Bushehr).