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Khooneh Be Khooneh vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
FT
0 – 0
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
10/21/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 9Shohada Stadium (Babol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh41%
×Draw34%
Shahin Bushehr26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.98
Shahin Bushehr
0.71

Khooneh Be Khooneh creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 48 away

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.00
Shahin Bushehr
0.69

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.73
Shahin Bushehr
0.96

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw
74%
Khooneh Be Khooneh or Shahin Bushehr
66%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
59%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
16%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
62%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
26%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
8%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
51%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
16%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
61%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
41%
level
34%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
26%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khooneh Be Khooneh vs Shahin Bushehr

Khooneh Be Khooneh and Shahin Bushehr drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium (Babol).