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Shahin Bushehr vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
5/22/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Shahin Bushehr29%
×Draw33%
Kheybar Khorramabad38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
0.81
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.96

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 67 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.85
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.88
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
62%
Shahin Bushehr or Kheybar Khorramabad
67%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
71%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
9%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
56%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
19%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
5%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
62%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
25%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
44%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.81

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
29%
level
33%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
38%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahin Bushehr 0–2 Kheybar Khorramabad

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Shahin Bushehr 2-0 in Azadegan League on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.