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Kheybar Khorramabad vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
1/12/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 14Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad55%
×Draw28%
Shahin Bushehr17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.38
Shahin Bushehr
0.62

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 123% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 36 away

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.67
Shahin Bushehr
0.58

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
0.66
Shahin Bushehr
1.08

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw
83%
Kheybar Khorramabad or Shahin Bushehr
72%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
45%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
27%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
75%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
40%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
16%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
46%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
13%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
77%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.58 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
55%
level
28%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
17%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kheybar Khorramabad vs Shahin Bushehr

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Shahin Bushehr 3-0 in Azadegan League on January 12, 2022.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Khorramabad.