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Shahin Bushehr vs Foolad FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Foolad FC
Foolad FC
10/4/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 6Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahin Bushehr28%
×Draw28%
Foolad FC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.00
Foolad FC
1.32

Foolad FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 116 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.93
Foolad FC
0.84

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
1.80
Foolad FC
1.07

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Foolad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
56%
Shahin Bushehr or Foolad FC
72%
Draw or Foolad FC
72%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
10%
Foolad FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
63%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
26%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
8%
Foolad FC 1+ goals
73%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
38%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
39%
Foolad FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.93 + Foolad FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Foolad FC attack 0.84 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
28%
level
28%
Foolad FC scores more
44%

Foolad FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahin Bushehr vs Foolad FC

Foolad FC beat Shahin Bushehr 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 4, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.