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Foolad FC vs Shahin Bushehr — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Foolad FC
Foolad FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
2/27/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 21Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Foolad FC56%
×Draw26%
Shahin Bushehr18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foolad FC
1.51
Shahin Bushehr
0.73

Foolad FC creates 107% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Foolad FC
1.02
Shahin Bushehr
0.80

allows per match

Foolad FC
0.66
Shahin Bushehr
2.00

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw
82%
Foolad FC or Shahin Bushehr
74%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
44%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+
29%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals
78%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
44%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
19%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
52%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
17%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)
76%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.66 · 102 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.02 + Shahin Bushehr defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.51

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.80 + Foolad FC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Foolad FC scores more
56%
level
26%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
18%

Foolad FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Foolad FC 1–0 Shahin Bushehr

Foolad FC beat Shahin Bushehr 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 27, 2020.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.