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Shahin Bushehr vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
1/23/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Shahin Bushehr40%
×Draw31%
Esteghlal Mollasani28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.08
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.85

Shahin Bushehr creates 27% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.85
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.88
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
72%
Shahin Bushehr or Esteghlal Mollasani
69%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
60%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
16%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
66%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
29%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
10%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
57%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
21%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
59%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
40%
level
31%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
28%

Shahin Bushehr at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahin Bushehr 0–1 Esteghlal Mollasani

Esteghlal Mollasani beat Shahin Bushehr 1-0 in Azadegan League on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.