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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
5/27/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 32Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani40%
×Draw33%
Shahin Bushehr27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.00
Shahin Bushehr
0.76

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 32% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 48 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Shahin Bushehr
0.69

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Shahin Bushehr
0.96

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
73%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Shahin Bushehr
67%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
60%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
15%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
63%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
26%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
8%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
53%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
18%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
60%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
40%
level
33%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
27%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Mollasani vs Shahin Bushehr

Esteghlal Mollasani beat Shahin Bushehr 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 27, 2022.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.