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Shahin Bushehr vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
3/30/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 23Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Shahin Bushehr33%
×Draw33%
Esteghlal Khuzestan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
0.90
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 67 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.85
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.88
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
66%
Shahin Bushehr or Esteghlal Khuzestan
67%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
67%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
12%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
59%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
23%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
6%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
60%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
23%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
50%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.94 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
33%
level
33%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
34%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahin Bushehr 0–7 Esteghlal Khuzestan

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Shahin Bushehr 7-0 in Azadegan League on March 30, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.