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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
3 – 0
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
11/17/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan47%
×Draw32%
Shahin Bushehr21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.10
Shahin Bushehr
0.62

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 77% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 48 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.25
Shahin Bushehr
0.69

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Shahin Bushehr
0.96

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
79%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Shahin Bushehr
68%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
53%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
20%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
67%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
30%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
10%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
46%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
13%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
70%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.55 · 67 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.25 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
47%
level
32%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
21%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shahin Bushehr

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Shahin Bushehr 3-0 in Azadegan League on November 17, 2021.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.