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Shahin Bushehr vs Esteghlal FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
8/20/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 30Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahin Bushehr20%
×Draw26%
Esteghlal FC54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
0.84
Esteghlal FC
1.55

Esteghlal FC creates 85% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 116 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.93
Esteghlal FC
1.30

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
1.80
Esteghlal FC
0.75

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
46%
Shahin Bushehr or Esteghlal FC
74%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
80%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
6%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
57%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
21%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
5%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
79%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
46%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
27%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.93 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Esteghlal FC attack 1.30 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
20%
level
26%
Esteghlal FC scores more
54%

Esteghlal FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Shahin Bushehr 1–4 Esteghlal FC

Esteghlal FC beat Shahin Bushehr 4-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on August 20, 2020.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.