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Esteghlal FC vs Shahin Bushehr — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
12/14/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 15Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Esteghlal FC61%
×Draw24%
Shahin Bushehr15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal FC
1.71
Shahin Bushehr
0.72

Esteghlal FC creates 138% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

creates per match

Esteghlal FC
1.42
Shahin Bushehr
0.80

allows per match

Esteghlal FC
0.63
Shahin Bushehr
2.00

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw
85%
Esteghlal FC or Shahin Bushehr
76%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
39%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
35%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
82%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
51%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
24%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
51%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
16%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
80%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.63 · 115 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.42 + Shahin Bushehr defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.80 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more
61%
level
24%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
15%

Esteghlal FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Esteghlal FC 4–1 Shahin Bushehr

Esteghlal FC beat Shahin Bushehr 4-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.