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Shabana vs Nairobi City Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Shabana
Shabana
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
10/22/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 7Raila Odinga Homa Bay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Shabana41%
×Draw29%
Nairobi City Stars30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabana
1.18
Nairobi City Stars
0.97

Shabana creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shabana
1.16
Nairobi City Stars
1.02

allows per match

Shabana
0.92
Nairobi City Stars
1.20

finishing

Shabana+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabana ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shabana or draw
70%
Shabana or Nairobi City Stars
71%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
59%

Winning margin

Shabana wins by 2+
17%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shabana 1+ goals
69%
Shabana 2+ goals
33%
Shabana 3+ goals
12%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
62%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
25%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shabana (draw refunded)
58%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabana at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.92 · 51 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabana attack 1.16 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.02 + Shabana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shabana scores more
41%
level
29%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
30%

Shabana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shabana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Shabana 2–2 Nairobi City Stars

Shabana and Nairobi City Stars drew 2-2 in FKF Premier League on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Raila Odinga Homa Bay Stadium in Homa Bay.