Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nairobi City Stars vs Shabana — FKF Premier League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shabana
Shabana
2/4/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 19Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nairobi City Stars38%
×Draw29%
Shabana33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
1.19
Shabana
1.08

Nairobi City Stars creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.18
Shabana
1.08

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.09
Shabana
1.20

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
Shabana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Shabana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
67%
Nairobi City Stars or Shabana
71%
Draw or Shabana
62%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
16%
Shabana wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
70%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
33%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
12%
Shabana 1+ goals
66%
Shabana 2+ goals
29%
Shabana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
54%
Shabana (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 85 matches

Shabana away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.18 + Shabana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Shabana attack 1.08 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
38%
level
29%
Shabana scores more
33%

Nairobi City Stars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Nairobi City Stars 0–0 Shabana

Nairobi City Stars and Shabana drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.