Shabana 1–0 Bidco United: Result & Stats

Shabana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bidco United

M. Okola 55' (pen)

12/6/2025

FKF Premier League · Round 12Gusii Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shabana38%

×Draw33%

Bidco United29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShabanaExpected goals in this matchBidco United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.80

Shabana

0.96

Bidco United

0.80

Shabana creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

0.88

creates per match

0.79

0.82

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Shabana

0.88

Bidco United

0.79

allows per match

Shabana

0.82

Bidco United

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabana+0.00on par

Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabana ↓

Bidco United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Shabana or draw

71%

Shabana or Bidco United

67%

Draw or Bidco United

62%

Winning margin

Shabana wins by 2+

14%

Bidco United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shabana 1+ goals

62%

Shabana 2+ goals

25%

Shabana 3+ goals

7%

Bidco United 1+ goals

55%

Bidco United 2+ goals

19%

Bidco United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shabana (draw refunded)

57%

Bidco United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabana at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabana attack 0.88 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Bidco United attack 0.79 + Shabana defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shabana scores more

38%

level

33%

Bidco United scores more

29%

Shabana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shabana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

M. OkolaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff