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Shabana vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

Shabana
Shabana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bidco United
Bidco United
B. Michira 60'
A. Odongo 20'
C. Asiago 37'
5/14/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 31Gusii Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shabana43%
×Draw32%
Bidco United25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabana
1.06
Bidco United
0.74

Shabana creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

creates per match

Shabana
1.05
Bidco United
0.69

allows per match

Shabana
0.79
Bidco United
1.06

finishing

Shabana+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabana ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shabana or draw
75%
Shabana or Bidco United
68%
Draw or Bidco United
57%

Winning margin

Shabana wins by 2+
17%
Bidco United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shabana 1+ goals
65%
Shabana 2+ goals
29%
Shabana 3+ goals
9%
Bidco United 1+ goals
52%
Bidco United 2+ goals
17%
Bidco United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shabana (draw refunded)
63%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabana at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabana attack 1.05 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Bidco United attack 0.69 + Shabana defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shabana scores more
43%
level
32%
Bidco United scores more
25%

Shabana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shabana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
A. Odongo
37'
C. Asiago
60'
B. Michira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Shabana 2–1 Bidco United

Shabana beat Bidco United 2-1 in FKF Premier League on May 14, 2025.

Goals: A. Odongo (20'), C. Asiago (37'), B. Michira (60').

The match was played at Gusii Stadium in Kisii.