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Shabab El Bourj vs Bourj — Premier League 2019

Shabab El Bourj
Shabab El Bourj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bourj
Bourj
4/23/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 8Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Shabab El Bourj41%
×Draw29%
Bourj30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab El Bourj
1.20
Bourj
0.98

Shabab El Bourj creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 57 away

creates per match

Shabab El Bourj
1.33
Bourj
1.02

allows per match

Shabab El Bourj
0.95
Bourj
1.07

finishing

Shabab El Bourj+0.00on par
Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab El Bourj ↓

Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shabab El Bourj or draw
70%
Shabab El Bourj or Bourj
71%
Draw or Bourj
59%

Winning margin

Shabab El Bourj wins by 2+
18%
Bourj wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shabab El Bourj 1+ goals
70%
Shabab El Bourj 2+ goals
34%
Shabab El Bourj 3+ goals
12%
Bourj 1+ goals
62%
Bourj 2+ goals
26%
Bourj 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shabab El Bourj (draw refunded)
58%
Bourj (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab El Bourj at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Bourj away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab El Bourj attack 1.33 + Bourj defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Bourj attack 1.02 + Shabab El Bourj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shabab El Bourj scores more
41%
level
29%
Bourj scores more
30%

Shabab El Bourj at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shabab El Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shabab El Bourj 1–0 Bourj

Shabab El Bourj beat Bourj 1-0 in Premier League on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.