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Bourj vs Shabab El Bourj — Premier League 2019

Bourj
Bourj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shabab El Bourj
Shabab El Bourj
3/9/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 1Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bourj48%
×Draw25%
Shabab El Bourj28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bourj
1.63
Shabab El Bourj
1.18

Bourj creates 38% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bourj
1.13
Shabab El Bourj
1.13

allows per match

Bourj
1.23
Shabab El Bourj
2.13

finishing

Bourj+0.00on par
Shabab El Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourj ↓

Shabab El Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bourj or draw
72%
Bourj or Shabab El Bourj
75%
Draw or Shabab El Bourj
52%

Winning margin

Bourj wins by 2+
25%
Shabab El Bourj wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bourj 1+ goals
80%
Bourj 2+ goals
48%
Bourj 3+ goals
22%
Shabab El Bourj 1+ goals
69%
Shabab El Bourj 2+ goals
33%
Shabab El Bourj 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bourj (draw refunded)
63%
Shabab El Bourj (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourj at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

Shabab El Bourj away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourj attack 1.13 + Shabab El Bourj defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Shabab El Bourj attack 1.13 + Bourj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bourj scores more
48%
level
25%
Shabab El Bourj scores more
28%

Bourj at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bourj 1–0 Shabab El Bourj

Bourj beat Shabab El Bourj 1-0 in Premier League on March 9, 2022.

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.