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Shabab Al Sahel vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
3/19/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 1Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shabab Al Sahel49%
×Draw27%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al Sahel
1.42
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.91

Shabab Al Sahel creates 56% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 29 away

creates per match

Shabab Al Sahel
1.43
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.69

allows per match

Shabab Al Sahel
1.12
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.41

finishing

Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par
Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Sahel ↓

Al Akhaa Al Ahli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shabab Al Sahel or draw
76%
Shabab Al Sahel or Al Akhaa Al Ahli
73%
Draw or Al Akhaa Al Ahli
51%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
24%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
76%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
41%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
17%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals
60%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals
23%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
67%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Sahel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.43 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.69 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Shabab Al Sahel scores more
49%
level
27%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more
24%

Shabab Al Sahel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shabab Al Sahel 1–0 Al Akhaa Al Ahli

Shabab Al Sahel beat Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1-0 in Premier League on March 19, 2021.

The match was played at Al Ahed Stadium in Beirut.