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Al Akhaa Al Ahli vs Shabab Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
10/17/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Al Ahed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli33%
×Draw29%
Shabab Al Sahel38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.06
Shabab Al Sahel
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.90
Shabab Al Sahel
1.19

allows per match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.10
Shabab Al Sahel
1.23

finishing

Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par
Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Akhaa Al Ahli ↓

Shabab Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Akhaa Al Ahli or draw
62%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli or Shabab Al Sahel
71%
Draw or Shabab Al Sahel
67%

Winning margin

Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+
13%
Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals
65%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals
29%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals
9%
Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
68%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
32%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)
47%
Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Akhaa Al Ahli at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Shabab Al Sahel away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.90 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.19 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more
33%
level
29%
Shabab Al Sahel scores more
38%

Shabab Al Sahel at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Akhaa Al Ahli vs Shabab Al Sahel

Al Akhaa Al Ahli and Shabab Al Sahel drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Al Ahed Stadium in Beirut.