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Shabab Al Sahel vs Al Ahli Nabatiya — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahli Nabatiya
Al Ahli Nabatiya
3/30/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 8Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shabab Al Sahel50%
×Draw28%
Al Ahli Nabatiya23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al Sahel
1.37
Al Ahli Nabatiya
0.83

Shabab Al Sahel creates 65% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 13 away

creates per match

Shabab Al Sahel
1.43
Al Ahli Nabatiya
0.54

allows per match

Shabab Al Sahel
1.12
Al Ahli Nabatiya
1.31

finishing

Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par
Al Ahli Nabatiya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Sahel ↓

Al Ahli Nabatiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shabab Al Sahel or draw
77%
Shabab Al Sahel or Al Ahli Nabatiya
72%
Draw or Al Ahli Nabatiya
50%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
24%
Al Ahli Nabatiya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
75%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
40%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
16%
Al Ahli Nabatiya 1+ goals
56%
Al Ahli Nabatiya 2+ goals
20%
Al Ahli Nabatiya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
69%
Al Ahli Nabatiya (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Sahel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

Al Ahli Nabatiya away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.43 + Al Ahli Nabatiya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Al Ahli Nabatiya attack 0.54 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shabab Al Sahel scores more
50%
level
28%
Al Ahli Nabatiya scores more
23%

Shabab Al Sahel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shabab Al Sahel vs Al Ahli Nabatiya

Al Ahli Nabatiya beat Shabab Al Sahel 1-0 in Premier League on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounie.