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Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Shabab Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Nabatiya
Al Ahli Nabatiya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
3/8/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 3Kafar El Jouz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Ahli Nabatiya29%
×Draw30%
Shabab Al Sahel41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Nabatiya
0.93
Shabab Al Sahel
1.17

Shabab Al Sahel creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Nabatiya
0.62
Shabab Al Sahel
1.19

allows per match

Al Ahli Nabatiya
1.15
Shabab Al Sahel
1.23

finishing

Al Ahli Nabatiya+0.00on par
Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Nabatiya ↓

Shabab Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Ahli Nabatiya or draw
59%
Al Ahli Nabatiya or Shabab Al Sahel
70%
Draw or Shabab Al Sahel
71%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Nabatiya wins by 2+
10%
Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Ahli Nabatiya 1+ goals
61%
Al Ahli Nabatiya 2+ goals
24%
Al Ahli Nabatiya 3+ goals
7%
Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
69%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
33%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Nabatiya (draw refunded)
41%
Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Nabatiya at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Shabab Al Sahel away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Nabatiya attack 0.62 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.93

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.19 + Al Ahli Nabatiya defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Ahli Nabatiya scores more
29%
level
30%
Shabab Al Sahel scores more
41%

Shabab Al Sahel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ahli Nabatiya 0–0 Shabab Al Sahel

Al Ahli Nabatiya and Shabab Al Sahel drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Kafar El Jouz Stadium in Nabatieh.