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Shabab Al Ghazieh vs Salam Zgharta — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al Ghazieh
Shabab Al Ghazieh
CANC
12:15
Salam Zgharta
Salam Zgharta
11/3/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Sour Stadium (Sour)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh48%
×Draw26%
Salam Zgharta26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.52
Salam Zgharta
1.05

Shabab Al Ghazieh creates 45% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 19 away

creates per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh
0.78
Salam Zgharta
0.47

allows per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.63
Salam Zgharta
2.26

finishing

Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par
Salam Zgharta+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ghazieh ↓

Salam Zgharta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ghazieh or draw
74%
Shabab Al Ghazieh or Salam Zgharta
74%
Draw or Salam Zgharta
52%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+
24%
Salam Zgharta wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals
78%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals
45%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals
20%
Salam Zgharta 1+ goals
65%
Salam Zgharta 2+ goals
28%
Salam Zgharta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)
65%
Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ghazieh at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

Salam Zgharta away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.78 + Salam Zgharta defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Salam Zgharta attack 0.47 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more
48%
level
26%
Salam Zgharta scores more
26%

Shabab Al Ghazieh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shabab Al Ghazieh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shabab Al Ghazieh vs Salam Zgharta — Match Preview

Shabab Al Ghazieh face Salam Zgharta on November 3, 2019 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shabab Al Ghazieh host Salam Zgharta at Sour Stadium (Sour).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.