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Salam Zgharta vs Shabab Al Ghazieh — Premier League 2019

Salam Zgharta
Salam Zgharta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shabab Al Ghazieh
Shabab Al Ghazieh
11/26/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Salam Zgharta Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salam Zgharta36%
×Draw27%
Shabab Al Ghazieh38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salam Zgharta
1.26
Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 49 away

creates per match

Salam Zgharta
0.67
Shabab Al Ghazieh
0.78

allows per match

Salam Zgharta
1.83
Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.84

finishing

Salam Zgharta+0.00on par
Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salam Zgharta ↓

Shabab Al Ghazieh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Salam Zgharta or draw
62%
Salam Zgharta or Shabab Al Ghazieh
73%
Draw or Shabab Al Ghazieh
64%

Winning margin

Salam Zgharta wins by 2+
15%
Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Salam Zgharta 1+ goals
72%
Salam Zgharta 2+ goals
36%
Salam Zgharta 3+ goals
13%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals
73%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals
38%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Salam Zgharta (draw refunded)
48%
Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salam Zgharta at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.84 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salam Zgharta attack 0.67 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.26

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.78 + Salam Zgharta defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Salam Zgharta scores more
36%
level
27%
Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more
38%

Shabab Al Ghazieh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shabab Al Ghazieh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Salam Zgharta 1–1 Shabab Al Ghazieh

Salam Zgharta and Shabab Al Ghazieh drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Salam Zgharta Club Stadium in Zgharta.