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Shabab Al Ghazieh vs Bourj — Premier League 2025

Shabab Al Ghazieh
Shabab Al Ghazieh
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Bourj
Bourj
4/24/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 3Imam Musa Al-Sadr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh29%
×Draw28%
Bourj43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.02
Bourj
1.31

Bourj creates 28% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 57 away

creates per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh
0.98
Bourj
1.02

allows per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.61
Bourj
1.07

finishing

Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par
Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ghazieh ↓

Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ghazieh or draw
57%
Shabab Al Ghazieh or Bourj
72%
Draw or Bourj
71%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+
11%
Bourj wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals
64%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals
27%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals
8%
Bourj 1+ goals
73%
Bourj 2+ goals
38%
Bourj 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)
40%
Bourj (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ghazieh at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

Bourj away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.98 + Bourj defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Bourj attack 1.02 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more
29%
level
28%
Bourj scores more
43%

Bourj at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shabab Al Ghazieh vs Bourj

Bourj beat Shabab Al Ghazieh 4-1 in Premier League on April 24, 2025.

The match was played at Imam Musa Al-Sadr Stadium in Ansar.