Bourj 1–1 Shabab Al Ghazieh: Result & Stats

Bourj

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shabab Al Ghazieh

Hasan Mhana 35' (pen)

Adam Sardah 89'

3/15/2025

Premier League · Round 10Imam Musa Al-Sadr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Bourj47%

×Draw26%

Shabab Al Ghazieh27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BourjExpected goals in this matchShabab Al Ghazieh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.05

Bourj

1.48

Shabab Al Ghazieh

1.05

Bourj creates 41% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 55 away

1.13

creates per match

0.87

1.23

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Bourj

1.13

Shabab Al Ghazieh

0.87

allows per match

Bourj

1.23

Shabab Al Ghazieh

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bourj+0.00on par

Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bourj ↓

Shabab Al Ghazieh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bourj or draw

73%

Bourj or Shabab Al Ghazieh

74%

Draw or Shabab Al Ghazieh

53%

Winning margin

Bourj wins by 2+

23%

Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bourj 1+ goals

77%

Bourj 2+ goals

43%

Bourj 3+ goals

19%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals

65%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals

28%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bourj (draw refunded)

64%

Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bourj at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bourj attack 1.13 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.87 + Bourj defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bourj scores more

47%

level

26%

Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more

27%

Bourj at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bourj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Hasan MhanaPenalty

62'

Youssef Anbar← Ali Abboud

62'

Hussain Kawaar← Qasem Laila

62'

Jameel Ibraheem← Mohammad Serdah

71'

Shadi Jouni← Ali Rahhal

71'

Hassan Chaito← Haider Kharis

72'

Hassan Kawam← Mohammad Hamdan

86'

Adam Sardah← Ali Koubeissi

89'

Hasan Mokdad← Ahmed Hejazi

89'

Adam Sardah

Bourj

Shabab

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Foad Hijazi

62'▲Youssef Anbar←▼Ali Abboud

71'▲Shadi Jouni←▼Ali Rahhal

71'▲Hassan Chaito←▼Haider Kharis

89'▲Hasan Mokdad←▼Ahmed Hejazi

Bourj substitutes

AnbarJouniChaitoMokdad

Manager: Hussain Khalifeh

62'▲Hussain Kawaar←▼Qasem Laila

62'▲Jameel Ibraheem←▼Mohammad Serdah

72'▲Hassan Kawam←▼Mohammad Hamdan

86'▲Adam Sardah←▼Ali Koubeissi

Shabab Al Ghazieh substitutes

KawaarIbraheemKawamSardah