Shabab Al Ghazieh 2–1 Al Ahli Nabatiya

Shabab Al Ghazieh

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Ahli Nabatiya

2/24/2024

Premier League · Relegation Round - 4Imam Musa Al-Sadr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh34%

×Draw30%

Al Ahli Nabatiya36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al GhaziehExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Nabatiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.08

Shabab Al Ghazieh

1.04

Al Ahli Nabatiya

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 13 away

0.78

creates per match

0.54

1.63

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh

0.78

Al Ahli Nabatiya

0.54

allows per match

Shabab Al Ghazieh

1.63

Al Ahli Nabatiya

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par

Al Ahli Nabatiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ghazieh ↓

Al Ahli Nabatiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ghazieh or draw

64%

Shabab Al Ghazieh or Al Ahli Nabatiya

70%

Draw or Al Ahli Nabatiya

66%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+

13%

Al Ahli Nabatiya wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals

65%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals

28%

Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals

9%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 1+ goals

66%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 2+ goals

29%

Al Ahli Nabatiya 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)

49%

Al Ahli Nabatiya (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ghazieh at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

Al Ahli Nabatiya away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.78 + Al Ahli Nabatiya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Ahli Nabatiya attack 0.54 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more

34%

level

30%

Al Ahli Nabatiya scores more

36%

Al Ahli Nabatiya at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Ahli Nabatiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff