Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Shabab Al Ghazieh — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Nabatiya
Al Ahli Nabatiya
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shabab Al Ghazieh
Shabab Al Ghazieh
4/7/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 9Kafar El Jouz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Ahli Nabatiya42%
×Draw29%
Shabab Al Ghazieh29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Nabatiya
1.23
Shabab Al Ghazieh
0.96

Al Ahli Nabatiya creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 49 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Nabatiya
0.62
Shabab Al Ghazieh
0.78

allows per match

Al Ahli Nabatiya
1.15
Shabab Al Ghazieh
1.84

finishing

Al Ahli Nabatiya+0.00on par
Shabab Al Ghazieh+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Nabatiya ↓

Shabab Al Ghazieh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Ahli Nabatiya or draw
71%
Al Ahli Nabatiya or Shabab Al Ghazieh
71%
Draw or Shabab Al Ghazieh
58%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Nabatiya wins by 2+
19%
Shabab Al Ghazieh wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Ahli Nabatiya 1+ goals
71%
Al Ahli Nabatiya 2+ goals
35%
Al Ahli Nabatiya 3+ goals
13%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 1+ goals
62%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 2+ goals
25%
Shabab Al Ghazieh 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Nabatiya (draw refunded)
60%
Shabab Al Ghazieh (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Nabatiya at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Shabab Al Ghazieh away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.84 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Nabatiya attack 0.62 + Shabab Al Ghazieh defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.23

Shabab Al Ghazieh attack 0.78 + Al Ahli Nabatiya defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Ahli Nabatiya scores more
42%
level
29%
Shabab Al Ghazieh scores more
29%

Al Ahli Nabatiya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Ahli Nabatiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Nabatiya vs Shabab Al Ghazieh

Shabab Al Ghazieh beat Al Ahli Nabatiya 2-0 in Premier League on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Kafar El Jouz Stadium in Nabatieh.