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Shabab Al-Ghar vs Ittihad Gharyan SC — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al-Ghar
Shabab Al-Ghar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ittihad Gharyan SC
Ittihad Gharyan SC
2/22/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shabab Al-Ghar48%
×Draw29%
Ittihad Gharyan SC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.28
Ittihad Gharyan SC
0.78

Shabab Al-Ghar creates 64% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.19
Ittihad Gharyan SC
0.38

allows per match

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.19
Ittihad Gharyan SC
1.38

finishing

Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par
Ittihad Gharyan SC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al-Ghar ↓

Ittihad Gharyan SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shabab Al-Ghar or draw
77%
Shabab Al-Ghar or Ittihad Gharyan SC
71%
Draw or Ittihad Gharyan SC
52%

Winning margin

Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+
22%
Ittihad Gharyan SC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals
72%
Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals
37%
Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals
14%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 1+ goals
54%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 2+ goals
18%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)
68%
Ittihad Gharyan SC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al-Ghar at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Ittihad Gharyan SC away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.19 + Ittihad Gharyan SC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ittihad Gharyan SC attack 0.38 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shabab Al-Ghar scores more
48%
level
29%
Ittihad Gharyan SC scores more
23%

Shabab Al-Ghar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shabab Al-Ghar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shabab Al-Ghar vs Ittihad Gharyan SC

Shabab Al-Ghar beat Ittihad Gharyan SC 2-1 in Premier League on February 22, 2026.