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Ittihad Gharyan SC vs Shabab Al-Ghar — Premier League 2019

Ittihad Gharyan SC
Ittihad Gharyan SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shabab Al-Ghar
Shabab Al-Ghar
12/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ittihad Gharyan SC34%
×Draw26%
Shabab Al-Ghar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Gharyan SC
1.25
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.38

Shabab Al-Ghar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ittihad Gharyan SC
0.88
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.00

allows per match

Ittihad Gharyan SC
1.75
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.63

finishing

Ittihad Gharyan SC+0.00on par
Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Gharyan SC ↓

Shabab Al-Ghar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ittihad Gharyan SC or draw
60%
Ittihad Gharyan SC or Shabab Al-Ghar
74%
Draw or Shabab Al-Ghar
66%

Winning margin

Ittihad Gharyan SC wins by 2+
15%
Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ittihad Gharyan SC 1+ goals
71%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 2+ goals
36%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 3+ goals
13%
Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals
75%
Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals
40%
Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Gharyan SC (draw refunded)
46%
Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Gharyan SC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Shabab Al-Ghar away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Gharyan SC attack 0.88 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.00 + Ittihad Gharyan SC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ittihad Gharyan SC scores more
34%
level
26%
Shabab Al-Ghar scores more
40%

Shabab Al-Ghar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shabab Al-Ghar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ittihad Gharyan SC 1–1 Shabab Al-Ghar

Ittihad Gharyan SC and Shabab Al-Ghar drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 20, 2025.