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Shabab Al-Ghar vs Alittihad Misurata — Premier League 2019

Shabab Al-Ghar
Shabab Al-Ghar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alittihad Misurata
Alittihad Misurata
2/9/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shabab Al-Ghar39%
×Draw29%
Alittihad Misurata31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.17
Alittihad Misurata
1.01

Shabab Al-Ghar creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 63 away

creates per match

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.19
Alittihad Misurata
0.84

allows per match

Shabab Al-Ghar
1.19
Alittihad Misurata
1.14

finishing

Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par
Alittihad Misurata+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al-Ghar ↓

Alittihad Misurata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shabab Al-Ghar or draw
69%
Shabab Al-Ghar or Alittihad Misurata
71%
Draw or Alittihad Misurata
61%

Winning margin

Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+
17%
Alittihad Misurata wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals
69%
Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals
33%
Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals
11%
Alittihad Misurata 1+ goals
64%
Alittihad Misurata 2+ goals
27%
Alittihad Misurata 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)
56%
Alittihad Misurata (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al-Ghar at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Alittihad Misurata away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.14 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.19 + Alittihad Misurata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Alittihad Misurata attack 0.84 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shabab Al-Ghar scores more
39%
level
29%
Alittihad Misurata scores more
31%

Shabab Al-Ghar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shabab Al-Ghar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shabab Al-Ghar 1–0 Alittihad Misurata

Shabab Al-Ghar beat Alittihad Misurata 1-0 in Premier League on February 9, 2026.