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Alittihad Misurata vs Shabab Al-Ghar — Premier League 2019

Alittihad Misurata
Alittihad Misurata
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Shabab Al-Ghar
Shabab Al-Ghar
4/25/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Alittihad Misurata49%
×Draw27%
Shabab Al-Ghar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alittihad Misurata
1.39
Shabab Al-Ghar
0.88

Alittihad Misurata creates 58% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 16 away

creates per match

Alittihad Misurata
1.15
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.00

allows per match

Alittihad Misurata
0.76
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.63

finishing

Alittihad Misurata+0.00on par
Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alittihad Misurata ↓

Shabab Al-Ghar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alittihad Misurata or draw
76%
Alittihad Misurata or Shabab Al-Ghar
73%
Draw or Shabab Al-Ghar
51%

Winning margin

Alittihad Misurata wins by 2+
24%
Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alittihad Misurata 1+ goals
75%
Alittihad Misurata 2+ goals
40%
Alittihad Misurata 3+ goals
16%
Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals
59%
Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals
22%
Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alittihad Misurata (draw refunded)
67%
Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alittihad Misurata at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Shabab Al-Ghar away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alittihad Misurata attack 1.15 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.00 + Alittihad Misurata defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alittihad Misurata scores more
49%
level
27%
Shabab Al-Ghar scores more
24%

Alittihad Misurata at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alittihad Misurata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alittihad Misurata vs Shabab Al-Ghar

Alittihad Misurata beat Shabab Al-Ghar 2-0 in Premier League on April 25, 2026.