Shabab Al-Ghar 1–1 Al Shomooa SC: Result & Stats

Shabab Al-Ghar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al Shomooa SC

1/7/2026

Premier League · Group B - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shabab Al-Ghar36%

×Draw26%

Al Shomooa SC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al-GharExpected goals in this matchAl Shomooa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.41

Shabab Al-Ghar

1.34

Al Shomooa SC

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

1.19

creates per match

1.63

1.19

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Shabab Al-Ghar

1.19

Al Shomooa SC

1.63

allows per match

Shabab Al-Ghar

1.19

Al Shomooa SC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par

Al Shomooa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al-Ghar ↓

Al Shomooa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shabab Al-Ghar or draw

61%

Shabab Al-Ghar or Al Shomooa SC

74%

Draw or Al Shomooa SC

64%

Winning margin

Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+

16%

Al Shomooa SC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals

74%

Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals

39%

Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals

15%

Al Shomooa SC 1+ goals

76%

Al Shomooa SC 2+ goals

41%

Al Shomooa SC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)

48%

Al Shomooa SC (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al-Ghar at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Al Shomooa SC away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.19 + Al Shomooa SC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al Shomooa SC attack 1.63 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shabab Al-Ghar scores more

36%

level

26%

Al Shomooa SC scores more

39%

Al Shomooa SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Shomooa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff