Al Shomooa SC 3–1 Shabab Al-Ghar: Result & Stats

Al Shomooa SC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shabab Al-Ghar

3/11/2026

Premier League · Group B - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Shomooa SC50%

×Draw26%

Shabab Al-Ghar24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Shomooa SCExpected goals in this matchShabab Al-Ghar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.94

Al Shomooa SC

1.50

Shabab Al-Ghar

0.94

Al Shomooa SC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

1.38

creates per match

1.00

0.88

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Al Shomooa SC

1.38

Shabab Al-Ghar

1.00

allows per match

Al Shomooa SC

0.88

Shabab Al-Ghar

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Shomooa SC+0.00on par

Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shomooa SC ↓

Shabab Al-Ghar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Shomooa SC or draw

76%

Al Shomooa SC or Shabab Al-Ghar

74%

Draw or Shabab Al-Ghar

50%

Winning margin

Al Shomooa SC wins by 2+

25%

Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Shomooa SC 1+ goals

78%

Al Shomooa SC 2+ goals

44%

Al Shomooa SC 3+ goals

19%

Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals

61%

Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals

24%

Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Shomooa SC (draw refunded)

68%

Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shomooa SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Shabab Al-Ghar away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shomooa SC attack 1.38 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.00 + Al Shomooa SC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Shomooa SC scores more

50%

level

26%

Shabab Al-Ghar scores more

24%

Al Shomooa SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Shomooa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff