Shabab Al-Ghar 2–0 Al-Nahda: Result & Stats

Shabab Al-Ghar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Nahda

12/18/2024

Premier League · West - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shabab Al-Ghar68%

×Draw20%

Al-Nahda12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al-GharExpected goals in this matchAl-Nahda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.72

Shabab Al-Ghar

2.04

Al-Nahda

0.72

Shabab Al-Ghar creates 183% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

1.19

creates per match

0.25

1.19

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Shabab Al-Ghar

1.19

Al-Nahda

0.25

allows per match

Shabab Al-Ghar

1.19

Al-Nahda

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par

Al-Nahda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al-Ghar ↓

Al-Nahda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shabab Al-Ghar or draw

88%

Shabab Al-Ghar or Al-Nahda

80%

Draw or Al-Nahda

32%

Winning margin

Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+

43%

Al-Nahda wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals

87%

Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals

60%

Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals

33%

Al-Nahda 1+ goals

51%

Al-Nahda 2+ goals

16%

Al-Nahda 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)

85%

Al-Nahda (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al-Ghar at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Al-Nahda away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.19 + Al-Nahda defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.04

Al-Nahda attack 0.25 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shabab Al-Ghar scores more

68%

level

20%

Al-Nahda scores more

12%

Shabab Al-Ghar at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Shabab Al-Ghar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff