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Al-Nahda vs Shabab Al-Ghar — Premier League 2019

Al-Nahda
Al-Nahda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shabab Al-Ghar
Shabab Al-Ghar
2/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · West - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Nahda18%
×Draw21%
Shabab Al-Ghar62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nahda
1.00
Shabab Al-Ghar
2.06

Shabab Al-Ghar creates 106% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al-Nahda
0.38
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.00

allows per match

Al-Nahda
3.13
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.63

finishing

Al-Nahda+0.00on par
Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nahda ↓

Shabab Al-Ghar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al-Nahda or draw
38%
Al-Nahda or Shabab Al-Ghar
79%
Draw or Shabab Al-Ghar
82%

Winning margin

Al-Nahda wins by 2+
6%
Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Al-Nahda 1+ goals
63%
Al-Nahda 2+ goals
26%
Al-Nahda 3+ goals
8%
Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals
87%
Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals
61%
Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Al-Nahda (draw refunded)
22%
Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nahda at home — creates 0.38, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

Shabab Al-Ghar away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nahda attack 0.38 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.00

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.00 + Al-Nahda defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al-Nahda scores more
18%
level
21%
Shabab Al-Ghar scores more
62%

Shabab Al-Ghar at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shabab Al-Ghar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nahda vs Shabab Al-Ghar

Shabab Al-Ghar beat Al-Nahda 1-0 in Premier League on February 9, 2025.