Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0–0 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pakhtakor

9/20/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Al Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai54%

×Draw25%

Pakhtakor21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al Ahli DubaiExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.89

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.58

Pakhtakor

0.89

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai creates 78% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

1.80

creates per match

0.78

1.00

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.80

Pakhtakor

0.78

allows per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.00

Pakhtakor

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw

79%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Pakhtakor

75%

Draw or Pakhtakor

46%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

28%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

79%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

47%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

21%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

59%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

22%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

72%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.80 + Pakhtakor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pakhtakor attack 0.78 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

54%

level

25%

Pakhtakor scores more

21%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff