Pakhtakor 2–1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: Result & Stats

Pakhtakor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2/10/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pakhtakor43%

×Draw25%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakhtakorExpected goals in this matchShabab Al Ahli Dubai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.32

Pakhtakor

1.56

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.32

Pakhtakor creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

1.52

creates per match

1.22

1.43

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Pakhtakor

1.52

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.22

allows per match

Pakhtakor

1.43

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw

68%

Pakhtakor or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

75%

Draw or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

57%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

21%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

79%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

46%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

21%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

73%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

38%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

57%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.22 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pakhtakor scores more

43%

level

25%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

32%

Pakhtakor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff