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Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC — Presidents Cup 2019

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Shabab Al Ahli Dubaiadvanced
AET
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baniyas SC
Baniyas SC
2/18/2024Presidents CupPresidents Cup · Round of 16Rashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai38%
×Draw27%
Baniyas SC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1.31
Baniyas SC
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1.83
Baniyas SC
1.80

allows per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
0.67
Baniyas SC
0.80

finishing

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par
Baniyas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ↓

Baniyas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw
65%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Baniyas SC
73%
Draw or Baniyas SC
62%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+
17%
Baniyas SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals
73%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals
38%
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals
14%
Baniyas SC 1+ goals
71%
Baniyas SC 2+ goals
35%
Baniyas SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)
52%
Baniyas SC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Baniyas SC away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.83 + Baniyas SC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.31

Baniyas SC attack 1.80 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more
38%
level
27%
Baniyas SC scores more
35%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Baniyas SC 2-1 in Presidents Cup on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Rashid Stadium in Dubai.