Baniyas SC 1–0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: Result & Stats

Baniyas SC

FT

1 – 0

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2/21/2020

Presidents Cup · Quarter-finalsSheikh Khalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Baniyas SC24%

×Draw30%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baniyas SCExpected goals in this matchShabab Al Ahli Dubai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.18

Baniyas SC

0.77

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.18

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

0.80

creates per match

1.55

0.80

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Baniyas SC

0.80

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.55

allows per match

Baniyas SC

0.80

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baniyas SC+0.00on par

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baniyas SC ↓

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Baniyas SC or draw

54%

Baniyas SC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

70%

Draw or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

76%

Winning margin

Baniyas SC wins by 2+

7%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Baniyas SC 1+ goals

54%

Baniyas SC 2+ goals

18%

Baniyas SC 3+ goals

4%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

69%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

33%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Baniyas SC (draw refunded)

35%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baniyas SC at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baniyas SC attack 0.80 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.55 + Baniyas SC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Baniyas SC scores more

24%

level

30%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

46%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff