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Shabaab al Jabal vs Ngom Ajdabiya — Premier League 2019

Shabaab al Jabal
Shabaab al Jabal
FT
0 – 1
Ngom Ajdabiya
Ngom Ajdabiya
3/2/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Shabaab al Jabal45%
×Draw28%
Ngom Ajdabiya27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shabaab al Jabal
1.31
Ngom Ajdabiya
0.96

Shabaab al Jabal creates 36% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 11 away

creates per match

Shabaab al Jabal
0.79
Ngom Ajdabiya
0.55

allows per match

Shabaab al Jabal
1.38
Ngom Ajdabiya
1.82

finishing

Shabaab al Jabal+0.00on par
Ngom Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabaab al Jabal ↓

Ngom Ajdabiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shabaab al Jabal or draw
73%
Shabaab al Jabal or Ngom Ajdabiya
72%
Draw or Ngom Ajdabiya
55%

Winning margin

Shabaab al Jabal wins by 2+
21%
Ngom Ajdabiya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shabaab al Jabal 1+ goals
73%
Shabaab al Jabal 2+ goals
38%
Shabaab al Jabal 3+ goals
14%
Ngom Ajdabiya 1+ goals
62%
Ngom Ajdabiya 2+ goals
25%
Ngom Ajdabiya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shabaab al Jabal (draw refunded)
62%
Ngom Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabaab al Jabal at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Ngom Ajdabiya away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabaab al Jabal attack 0.79 + Ngom Ajdabiya defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ngom Ajdabiya attack 0.55 + Shabaab al Jabal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shabaab al Jabal scores more
45%
level
28%
Ngom Ajdabiya scores more
27%

Shabaab al Jabal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shabaab al Jabal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shabaab al Jabal vs Ngom Ajdabiya

Ngom Ajdabiya beat Shabaab al Jabal 1-0 in Premier League on March 2, 2021.