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Ngom Ajdabiya vs Shabaab al Jabal — Premier League 2019

Ngom Ajdabiya
Ngom Ajdabiya
FT
0 – 4
Shabaab al Jabal
Shabaab al Jabal
7/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ngom Ajdabiya37%
×Draw28%
Shabaab al Jabal35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ngom Ajdabiya
1.17
Shabaab al Jabal
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 29 away

creates per match

Ngom Ajdabiya
0.55
Shabaab al Jabal
0.79

allows per match

Ngom Ajdabiya
1.45
Shabaab al Jabal
1.79

finishing

Ngom Ajdabiya+0.00on par
Shabaab al Jabal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ngom Ajdabiya ↓

Shabaab al Jabal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ngom Ajdabiya or draw
65%
Ngom Ajdabiya or Shabaab al Jabal
72%
Draw or Shabaab al Jabal
63%

Winning margin

Ngom Ajdabiya wins by 2+
16%
Shabaab al Jabal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ngom Ajdabiya 1+ goals
69%
Ngom Ajdabiya 2+ goals
33%
Ngom Ajdabiya 3+ goals
11%
Shabaab al Jabal 1+ goals
67%
Shabaab al Jabal 2+ goals
31%
Shabaab al Jabal 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ngom Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
52%
Shabaab al Jabal (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ngom Ajdabiya at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Shabaab al Jabal away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ngom Ajdabiya attack 0.55 + Shabaab al Jabal defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.17

Shabaab al Jabal attack 0.79 + Ngom Ajdabiya defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ngom Ajdabiya scores more
37%
level
28%
Shabaab al Jabal scores more
35%

Ngom Ajdabiya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ngom Ajdabiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ngom Ajdabiya vs Shabaab al Jabal

Shabaab al Jabal beat Ngom Ajdabiya 4-0 in Premier League on July 3, 2021.