Shabaab al Jabal 3–2 Al-Anwar: Result & Stats

Shabaab al Jabal

FT

3 – 2

Al-Anwar

5/9/2021

Premier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shabaab al Jabal42%

×Draw29%

Al-Anwar29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabaab al JabalExpected goals in this matchAl-Anwar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.99

Shabaab al Jabal

1.25

Al-Anwar

0.99

Shabaab al Jabal creates 26% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

0.79

creates per match

0.61

1.38

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Shabaab al Jabal

0.79

Al-Anwar

0.61

allows per match

Shabaab al Jabal

1.38

Al-Anwar

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabaab al Jabal+0.00on par

Al-Anwar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabaab al Jabal ↓

Al-Anwar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shabaab al Jabal or draw

71%

Shabaab al Jabal or Al-Anwar

71%

Draw or Al-Anwar

58%

Winning margin

Shabaab al Jabal wins by 2+

19%

Al-Anwar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shabaab al Jabal 1+ goals

71%

Shabaab al Jabal 2+ goals

36%

Shabaab al Jabal 3+ goals

13%

Al-Anwar 1+ goals

63%

Al-Anwar 2+ goals

26%

Al-Anwar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shabaab al Jabal (draw refunded)

59%

Al-Anwar (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabaab al Jabal at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Al-Anwar away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.72 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabaab al Jabal attack 0.79 + Al-Anwar defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al-Anwar attack 0.61 + Shabaab al Jabal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shabaab al Jabal scores more

42%

level

29%

Al-Anwar scores more

29%

Shabaab al Jabal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shabaab al Jabal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff