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Al-Anwar vs Shabaab al Jabal — Premier League 2019

Al-Anwar
Al-Anwar
FT
4 – 2
Shabaab al Jabal
Shabaab al Jabal
7/22/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al-Anwar43%
×Draw25%
Shabaab al Jabal32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Anwar
1.55
Shabaab al Jabal
1.30

Al-Anwar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 29 away

creates per match

Al-Anwar
1.31
Shabaab al Jabal
0.79

allows per match

Al-Anwar
1.81
Shabaab al Jabal
1.79

finishing

Al-Anwar+0.00on par
Shabaab al Jabal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Anwar ↓

Shabaab al Jabal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Anwar or draw
68%
Al-Anwar or Shabaab al Jabal
75%
Draw or Shabaab al Jabal
57%

Winning margin

Al-Anwar wins by 2+
22%
Shabaab al Jabal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al-Anwar 1+ goals
79%
Al-Anwar 2+ goals
46%
Al-Anwar 3+ goals
20%
Shabaab al Jabal 1+ goals
73%
Shabaab al Jabal 2+ goals
37%
Shabaab al Jabal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Anwar (draw refunded)
57%
Shabaab al Jabal (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Anwar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

Shabaab al Jabal away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Anwar attack 1.31 + Shabaab al Jabal defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

Shabaab al Jabal attack 0.79 + Al-Anwar defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Anwar scores more
43%
level
25%
Shabaab al Jabal scores more
32%

Al-Anwar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Anwar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Anwar vs Shabaab al Jabal

Al-Anwar beat Shabaab al Jabal 4-2 in Premier League on July 22, 2021.