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Shaanxi Union vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Shaanxi Union
Shaanxi Union
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
8/24/2024League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 2Weinan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shaanxi Union60%
×Draw22%
Hunan Billows FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaanxi Union
1.89
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

Shaanxi Union creates 101% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 33 away

creates per match

Shaanxi Union
1.86
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Shaanxi Union
0.93
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Shaanxi Union+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Union ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shaanxi Union or draw
82%
Shaanxi Union or Hunan Billows FC
78%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
40%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Union wins by 2+
35%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shaanxi Union 1+ goals
85%
Shaanxi Union 2+ goals
56%
Shaanxi Union 3+ goals
29%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
61%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
24%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Union (draw refunded)
76%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Union at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Union attack 1.86 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Shaanxi Union defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shaanxi Union scores more
60%
level
22%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
18%

Shaanxi Union at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shaanxi Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Shaanxi Union 1–1 Hunan Billows FC

Shaanxi Union and Hunan Billows FC drew 1-1 in League Two on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Weinan Sports Center Stadium in Weinan.