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Hunan Billows FC vs Shaanxi Union — League Two 2022

Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shaanxi Union
Shaanxi Union
9/28/2024League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 7Loudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hunan Billows FC25%
×Draw23%
Shaanxi Union52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunan Billows FC
1.15
Shaanxi Union
1.77

Shaanxi Union creates 54% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.22
Shaanxi Union
1.64

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.91
Shaanxi Union
1.07

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par
Shaanxi Union+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Shaanxi Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw
48%
Hunan Billows FC or Shaanxi Union
77%
Draw or Shaanxi Union
75%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
10%
Shaanxi Union wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
68%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
32%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
11%
Shaanxi Union 1+ goals
83%
Shaanxi Union 2+ goals
53%
Shaanxi Union 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
32%
Shaanxi Union (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Shaanxi Union away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Shaanxi Union defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Shaanxi Union attack 1.64 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more
25%
level
23%
Shaanxi Union scores more
52%

Shaanxi Union at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shaanxi Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hunan Billows FC 1–0 Shaanxi Union

Hunan Billows FC beat Shaanxi Union 1-0 in League Two on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Loudi Sports Center in Loudi.