Shaanxi Changan Athletic 0–2 Hebei Kungfu

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hebei Kungfu

11/9/2022

League One · Round 28Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic41%

×Draw28%

Hebei Kungfu30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shaanxi Changan AthleticExpected goals in this matchHebei Kungfu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.03

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.25

Hebei Kungfu

1.03

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 21% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 69 away

1.46

creates per match

1.14

0.93

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.46

Hebei Kungfu

1.14

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

0.93

Hebei Kungfu

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Hebei Kungfu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Hebei Kungfu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw

70%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Hebei Kungfu

72%

Draw or Hebei Kungfu

59%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+

18%

Hebei Kungfu wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals

71%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals

36%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals

13%

Hebei Kungfu 1+ goals

64%

Hebei Kungfu 2+ goals

28%

Hebei Kungfu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)

58%

Hebei Kungfu (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Hebei Kungfu away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.03 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.46 + Hebei Kungfu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hebei Kungfu attack 1.14 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more

41%

level

28%

Hebei Kungfu scores more

30%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff